How much do the AI computer companies owe — and do lenders still trust them?
Companion study: Market Study MS-2026-003 — Three AI computer landlords compared: who is strongest?
This report looks at how much each of the three AI-computer companies owes, and whether lenders and investors still trust them. CoreWeave owes the most — about $52 billion including leases — and its bonds trade at distressed prices, a warning sign. Nebius owes the least relative to its cash. IREN sits in between, but plans to spend far more than it has, so its future borrowing is the real question.
CoreWeave (CRWV) / Nebius (NBIS) / IREN — Leverage & Investor Confidence
As of mid-October 2026. Prices from market-data files fetched 2026-10-15T18:56Z: CRWV $68.15 (+3.6% that day, −25.6% in 1 week, −50.9% in 1 year); NBIS $182.43 (−1.9%, −21.6% 1w, +45.2% 1y); IREN $29.39 (−3.8%, −21.0% 1w, −56.1% 1y). This is comparative analysis, not a personalised buy/sell recommendation.
Summary
- CoreWeave is by far the most leveraged and the most stressed. At 30 June 2026 it carried $35.1bn of balance-sheet debt + $16.5bn of lease liabilities (≈$51.6bn combined) against $5.0bn equity and $5.5bn cash. Q2 net interest was $640m = 24.9% of revenue, ~5x adjusted operating income. In the week of 13–15 Oct 2026 its 9.625% 2032 notes traded at ~76–79 cents, yielding ~15–16% (vs 9.625% coupon), and 5-yr CDS widened to ~880–1,000+ bp. Ratings are junk: Ba3 (Moody's) / B+ (S&P) / BB− (Fitch) at corporate level, though some contract-backed facilities carry investment-grade ratings.
- Nebius is the least leveraged on a net basis at the last balance-sheet date, with ~$8.0bn cash at 30 June, Q2 interest of only $119m, and customer prepayments funding 50–60% of capex on its largest Q2 deals — but it is still a serial raiser: $5.75bn of converts closed 24 Aug 2026 on top of $4.34bn in March, and its 2026 capex guide is $20–25bn against $3.0–3.4bn guided revenue.
- IREN sits in between on leverage but is smallest on revenue: FY2026 (ended 30 June 2026) revenue was only $707m, yet total debt was $7.59bn and cash + restricted cash $7.62bn. Its Microsoft-backed GPU facility priced at a 6.00% blended cost (investment-grade, Fitch A), while its August Blue Owl/PIMCO facility priced at 9% fixed — a 300bp spread that prices counterparty quality. Its FY2027 capex guide of up to $30bn dwarfs its balance sheet, so the funding gap, not current leverage, is the risk.
- Confidence ranking (growth investor, volatility-tolerant): 1. Nebius 6/10, 2. IREN 4/10, 3. CoreWeave 3/10. See Conclusion for swing factors.
Part 1 — Leverage
CoreWeave (CRWV) — debt stack
Balance sheet at 30 June 2026 (Q2 10-Q, $m):
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Cash & equivalents | 5,524 |
| Recourse debt — current / non-current | 6,235 / 25,170 |
| Non-recourse debt — current / non-current | 1,278 / 2,385 |
| Total balance-sheet debt (carrying) | ~35,068 (principal ~$35.5bn) |
| Operating lease liabilities — current / non-current | 584 / 15,735 |
| Finance lease liabilities — current / non-current | 7 / 214 |
| Debt + leases | ~51,600 |
| Total stockholders' equity | 5,024 |
| Signed leases not yet commenced (undiscounted, not additive to lease liabilities) | ~35,500 |
Senior unsecured notes (coupons/maturities confirmed in company releases; per-tranche principals only where verified): - 9.250% senior notes due 2030 — $2.0bn (May 2025, upsized from $1.5bn). - 9.000% senior notes due 2031 — $1.75bn (July 2025). - 9.750% senior notes due 2031 — issued April 2026; principal amount not verified in sources reviewed (one secondary summary garbled it as $1.75m — do not rely on that). - 9.625% senior notes due 2032 — $1.25bn (June 2026). - 8.500% senior notes due 2032 — principal not verified. - Convertible senior notes: 1.75% due 2031 — $2.5875bn (Dec 2025, incl. greenshoe), conversion ~$107.80, capped-call cap $215.60; 1.75% due 2032 — $4.0bn (Apr 2026), conversion ~$119.60, cap $230.00; 2.875% due 2033 — $4.2bn (closed 22 Sep 2026, upsized from $3.0bn), conversion ~$97.85 (22.5% premium to $79.88 on 17 Sep), capped-call cost $566.2m, cap $199.70. Converts are senior unsecured, settleable in cash/shares/combination at CoreWeave's election.
Term loans / facilities (contract- and GPU-backed, mostly non-recourse at SPVs): - DDTL 1.0 (Aug 2023) up to $2.3bn; DDTL 2.0 (May 2024) up to $7.6bn, plus DDTL 2.1 $3.0bn tranche (Sep 2025); DDTL 3.0 (Jul 2025) up to $2.6bn. - DDTL 4.0 (Mar 2026) $8.5bn — Meta-backed, investment-grade rated (Moody's A3 / DBRS A(low)); fixed tranche ~5.9%, floating tranche SOFR+2.25%. - DDTL 5.0 (May 2026) $3.1bn — first publicly syndicated, Ba2/BB+, SOFR+4.50%, backed by two non-investment-grade customers. - DDTL 5.5 (Aug 2026) $2.6bn — Ba2/BB+, SOFR+5.50% (0% floor) + 0.50% p.a. fee on average undrawn, maturity 1 Sep 2031, availability through Dec 2026; covenant: debt-service coverage ratio ≥1.35x once commitments are reduced to zero or after 31 Dec 2026. - Revolver: $650m (Oct 2024) → $1.5bn (May 2025) → $2.5bn (Nov 2025), maturity Nov 2029. - OEM/software financing arrangements: aggregate notional $5.2bn at 31 Dec 2025 (10-K).
Lenders on the big facilities (Reuters, 15 Oct 2026): Blackstone Credit & Insurance anchored DDTL 4.0; earlier facilities led by Blackstone/Magnetar with Coatue, Carlyle, CDPQ, DigitalBridge, BlackRock, PIMCO; DDTL 5.0/5.5 arranged by Morgan Stanley/MUFG and JPMorgan/MUFG. Specific buyers of the Sept 2026 converts/ATM were not disclosed (144A private placement to qualified institutional buyers; capped-call counterparties: Barclays, Crédit Agricole, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Santander, Scotiabank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Wells Fargo). Fidelity Convertible Securities Fund held $39.82m face of the 1.75% 2031 converts at 31 Aug 2026; Nomura High Income Fund held ~$11.68m across four CoreWeave bond issues (LSEG via Reuters).
CoreWeave — interest expense & coverage
- Q1 2026: net interest $536m; Q2 2026: $640m (vs $267m a year earlier, +140%), = 24.9% of Q2 revenue ($2,575m). H1 2026 contractual interest expense $1.08bn.
- Q2 adjusted operating income was only $128m, so interest was ~5x adjusted operating income; GAAP operating income was a $49m loss. Q3 2026 guidance (Aug): interest expense $860–940m vs adjusted operating income $200–260m. Full-year 2026 interest consensus cited at ~$3.0bn — not independently verified.
- No company-disclosed consolidated interest-coverage covenant was found; the binding disclosed covenant found is the DDTL 5.5 DSCR ≥1.35x noted above. S&P's B+ rationale cited material-weakness/internal-controls risk: failure to deliver an unqualified management report on controls with the 2026 10-K could itself breach affirmative covenants under credit agreements (per a credit-research summary reproduced 15 Oct — treat as second-hand).
CoreWeave — market stress signals (October 2026)
- 9.625% notes due 2032: yield ~14.8% intraday 14 Oct (CNBC), ~15.06% at a $79.50 price vs 13.42% at start of October; 15 Oct: traded ~76.5–78 cents, yield ~16% (Barron's/MarketAxess; TradingNews). 9.75% 2031 notes ~14.9%. For comparison, an Oracle 6.25% Nov 2032 bond yielded 7.24%.
- CDS: 5-yr CDS ~547bp at end-June → ~881bp on 12 Oct (Dow Jones via Morningstar) → >1,000bp on 15 Oct (TradingNews); Reuters/LSEG put the implied 5-yr default probability at ~63%, up from ~30% a year earlier. A 15–16% secondary yield does not change CoreWeave's fixed coupons on outstanding notes — it raises the cost of new borrowing.
- Ratings: corporate Ba3 (Moody's) / B+ (S&P) / BB− (Fitch) — junk. Facility-level ratings vary: DDTL 4.0 investment-grade (A3/A(low)); DDTL 5.0/5.5 Ba2/BB+. S&P's B+ rationale cited broadened customer base (Meta, OpenAI) as the reason it is "only" B+ despite persistent losses.
- Management on refinancing / investment grade: The Sept 2026 ATM + converts were explicitly framed as supporting "migrating its enterprise credit profile toward investment grade." Co-founder Brannin McBee told the FT (14 Oct) that investment-grade ratings on more of its chip-backed debt would let it borrow from insurers — whose capital he called "unlimited" — at lower cost; he said CoreWeave could reach investment grade as a whole "within a few years" and is "actively" looking at Nvidia's $500bn financing programme unveiled in August with Goldman Sachs et al. CEO Michael Intrator's internal memo called the market reaction "irrational" and pointed to backlog covering debt. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (15 Oct, Stockholm) said Nvidia need not backstop CoreWeave, that its strength is improving and cost of capital "actually decreasing" — rejecting a Jefferies call for Nvidia financing backstops. No new funding deal had been announced as of 15 Oct.
CoreWeave — funding runway / 2026 capex $35–39bn
- Q2 guidance (11 Aug 2026): FY2026 revenue $12.4–13.2bn; Q3 revenue $3.45–3.6bn; capex raised to $35–39bn (from $31–35bn); backlog $104.2bn RPO (21% in next 24 months) + >$25bn net new commitments in early Q3.
- Liquidity at 30 June: cash $5.52bn + $10.01bn undrawn secured capacity (TS2 summary of 10-Q) + $2.6bn DDTL 5.5 signed in August (of which $1.2bn drawn, per TS2) + Sept converts net ~$4.14bn (before $566m capped-call cost) + ATM capacity of up to 35m shares (~$2.9bn at the ~$83 pre-announcement price; actual proceeds depend on sales, none confirmed).
- Funded vs still-to-raise: not disclosed as a single percentage, and this report does not estimate one. Arithmetic context only: H1 2026 investing outflow was $14.87bn and H1 property/equipment purchases ~$14.1–14.9bn (sources differ on capex definition), so a large share of the $35–39bn guide remained to be spent in H2, to be covered by operating cash flow ($3.7bn H1), customer prepayments (amount not disclosed), and further debt/equity — against a market now pricing new unsecured debt at ~15–16%.
- What breaks first: (1) new-issue access/cost — if unsecured yields stay ~15%+, each $1bn of new borrowing costs ~$150m/yr; (2) the DDTL 5.5 DSCR ≥1.35x test once it begins (after commitments run off / 31 Dec 2026) — a customer delay or utilisation miss hits project-level cash flow first; (3) duration mismatch flagged in analysis: ~3-yr GPU life and ~1–3-yr average customer contracts vs 5-yr facilities and 15-yr facility leases — renewal/re-leasing risk; (4) concentration: Microsoft was 67% of 2025 revenue; Q2 2026 top-3 customers were 36%/26%/10% of revenue (filing does not name them).
Nebius (NBIS) — leverage essentials
- At 30 June 2026: cash & equivalents $8.04bn (call: "$8bn"); Q2 revenue $582.3m (+454% y/y); adjusted EBITDA $236.2m (41% margin; AI-cloud segment 50%); GAAP net loss from continuing operations $190.4m.
- Total debt: sources conflict and are date-sensitive — do not treat any single figure as definitive. IO Fund/Medium (using Q2 filings) describe debt at end-Q2 as "almost entirely convertible notes" with net debt ~$0.5bn after $8bn cash; another summary of the same quarter cites $17.62bn total debt / $503.6m net debt (inconsistent gross figure, likely mixing carrying amounts, lease/prepayment balances or a later date). Verified anchors: Q2 interest expense was $119.1m (H1 $182.8m) = ~20.5% of Q2 revenue; OCF was ~$2.25–2.3bn in Q2, flattered by prepayments.
- Convertible stack: June 2025 $1.0bn; Sep 2025 ~$3.16bn (2030/2032 series); Mar 2026 $4.3375bn — 1.250% due 2031 ($2.5875bn) + 2.625% due 2033 ($1.75bn); Aug 2026 $5.75bn — 0.50% due 2030 ($3.45bn, conversion $313.46, 40% premium to $223.90 on 19 Aug) + 4.50% due 2034 ($2.3bn, conversion $324.65, 45% premium). Earlier notes convert at ~$51–$183 (below the late-Sep ~$231 share price, so settleable in shares at dilution cost). Concurrently with the Aug pricing, Nebius exchanged $800m of existing 2.00% 2029 / 3.00% 2031 notes for ~15.8m Class A shares.
- Secured facility: Jul 2026 — first senior secured facility $775m, SOFR+2.50%, maturity 31 Oct 2030, backed by deployed GPUs + contracted cash flows of an investment-grade customer.
- ATM: up to 25m Class A shares (Nov 2025, Goldman/Morgan Stanley/BofA/Citi). In Q2 2026 Nebius issued 12.7m shares at a $224 weighted average = ~$2.8bn gross; 12.3m shares remained at 30 June. The mission's "August 2026 ATM" phrasing appears to conflate this programme with the August converts — no separate August ATM was found.
- Funding gap: 2026 capex guide $20–25bn vs guided revenue $3.0–3.4bn and exit ARR $7–9bn. Offsets: >$9bn customer prepayments expected in 2026 (70% of Q2 deals; 50–60% of associated capex on largest contracts), $8bn June cash, $5.75bn August converts. One analysis (TIKR, citing Citi conference) said Nebius has secured only ~20% of an estimated ~$250bn needed for its 5GW pipeline — unverified, and the $250bn figure is a company estimate relayed second-hand; do not anchor on it. Near-term, the binding constraint is continued prepayment flow: if customers delay or stop prepaying, the gap must be closed with converts/equity at whatever price the market offers — NBIS fell ~10% on 14 Oct on CoreWeave contagion despite no company news.
- No public credit rating for Nebius was found.
IREN — leverage essentials
- FY2026 (year ended 30 Jun 2026): revenue $707.0m (AI Cloud $128.8m; Bitcoin mining $578.2m); net loss $702.6m incl. $638.8m impairment of mining hardware being dismantled; adjusted EBITDA $245.7m (per secondary summary); operating loss $1,046.7m.
- Finance expense was only $59.3m in FY2026 (vs interest income $80.6m) because most debt was raised late in the year — this will step up sharply in FY2027 as the $3.65bn + $2.4bn facilities accrue. Total debt $7.59bn (MarketBeat FY2026 figure); cash + restricted cash $7,619.5m (10-K cash-flow statement) — of which cash & equivalents alone were $5,895.6m per one summary. Debt conversion inducement expense $111.8m in FY2026.
- Convertible stack: Dec 2025 $2.3bn — 0.25% due 2032 ($1.15bn) + 1.00% due 2033 ($1.15bn), capped-call cap $82.24 — plus repurchase of $544.3m of old 3.50% 2029 (conv $13.64) / 3.25% 2030 (conv $16.81) notes for $1,632.4m, funded by a 39.7m-share placement ($1.63bn at $41.12). May 2026 $2.6bn priced — 1.00% due 1 Dec 2033, conversion $73.07 (32.5% premium to $55.15 on 11 May), cap $110.30; with the $400m option, $3.0bn total per Respect summary.
- GPU facilities: Jun 2026 $3.65bn investment-grade facility for the Microsoft contract, blended 6.00% — $2.10bn US private placement (5.96% senior notes due 31 Dec 2031) + $1.55bn DDTL (SOFR+2.25%); Fitch rated the facility A; with Microsoft's $1.94bn prepayment it covered ~96% of the $5.81bn GPU bill. Aug 2026 $2.4bn Blue Owl-led + PIMCO — $1.2bn senior secured term loan + $1.2bn senior secured notes, 9% fixed, ~2.5-yr maturity, staged draws tied to Blackwell Ultra deliveries for Mackenzie, BC; plus $2.8bn of "other GPU financings" referenced in the FY26 release (of which the $2.4bn is part).
- Funding gap: commitments at 30 Jun were $13.81bn; management said existing cash + committed GPU financing + prepayments totalled ~$14bn, covering those commitments. But FY2027 capex guidance is up to $30bn (announced with FY26 results; stock fell ~13% that day). A June 2026 BlocksBridge/VanEck-based analysis estimated a $21.1bn funding gap at IREN for its AI pipeline — second-hand and pre-dating the August raises; treat as indicative, not current. Q4 FY26 OCF of $1.81bn included a $1.72bn deferred-revenue (prepayment) increase — ex-prepayments, ~$89m (Respect calculation).
- Contracted ARR $4bn for 2026 capacity ($1bn operating at FY-end); 2026 capacity "largely sold out"; target ~0.3GW IT capacity in 2026, 0.8GW in 2027, pipeline >5GW.
Part 2 — Investors
Top institutional holders (latest 13F data, Q2 2026 unless noted; % figures vary by aggregator — approximate)
| Company | Institutions (total %) | Largest holders |
|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave | ~72.5–75.8%; 1,125 holders | Magnetar ~9.5–9.9% (~$5.2bn); Nvidia ~8.6–9.0% (~$4.7bn); Proficio $2.44bn; Vanguard $2.00bn; Alyeska $1.08bn; Coatue $920m; Situational Awareness $745m (MarketBeat values) |
| Nebius | 21.9% (13F universe; low because founder Class B holdings are outside it) | BlackRock 11,531,270 sh (~$3.18bn); Situational Awareness LP new ~$1.23bn (5.6% stake reported May 2026, ousting BlackRock as top 13F holder at that time); State Street 4,069,875 sh (~1.61%); Jennison 3,983,899 sh; Accel Leaders 4 ~$1.01bn |
| IREN | 41.1% | Situational Awareness $433.25m; Marex $168.88m; BNP Paribas Financial Markets $158.68m; Clear Street $137.08m; Citadel/Griffin 4.7% economic (see below) |
Caveat: holder %s from different aggregators conflict (e.g. CRWV Magnetar 14.9% in a May 13G/A vs ~9.5% in Q2 13F compilations) because of share-class counting, fund-level vs group-level aggregation, and timing. Treat the table as directional.
Strategic investors
Nvidia — in all three, different forms: - CoreWeave: $2bn common-stock investment Jan 2026 at $87.20/share (~23m shares), nearly doubling its stake to 47.2m shares (~8.6–11.5% depending on count/date; ~10% per Oct 2026 press). Relationship since 2021/2023 Series B; preferential access to next-gen GPUs; CoreWeave's Mission Control/SUNK software integrated into Nvidia reference architectures; Nvidia agreed (2025) to buy up to $6.3bn of unsold CoreWeave capacity through 2032. Huang (15 Oct) declined a financing backstop. - Nebius: $2bn pre-funded warrant (11 Mar 2026), exercisable for 21,065,936 Class A shares at $0.0001, plus 1,190,476 shares already held = 22,256,412 shares, 9.3% of Class A per Nvidia's 13G (20 Jul 2026). Six-month transfer lock-up to 11 Sep 2026. Partnership targets >5GW of Nvidia systems by end-2030, engineering collaboration, early hardware access. The July 13G was a disclosure of the March warrant entering the 60-day window, not a new investment. - IREN: Not yet a shareholder. May 2026: Nvidia will consume 60MW at Childress (~$3.4bn contract) and received a 5-yr right to buy up to 30m shares at $70 (up to $2.1bn, just under 10%), vesting as Nvidia delivers GPUs. With IREN at ~$29–39 in early Oct, the $70 strike is ~45–80% out of the money; no exercise has been disclosed.
Other strategic backers / relationships: - CoreWeave: Microsoft (67% of 2025 revenue; original anchor customer); OpenAI — customer + $350m of stock issued as part of the Mar 2025 $11.9bn deal, total collaboration ~$22.4bn; Meta — $21bn expanded agreement Apr 2026 (through Dec 2032) on top of $14.2bn Sep 2025; Jane Street — ~$6bn compute commitment + $1bn equity at $109/share; Anthropic — multiyear Claude infrastructure deal Apr 2026. Magnetar (pre-IPO lead investor) remains the largest holder. - Nebius: Microsoft — $17.4bn (up to $19.4bn with additional services), Vineland NJ; Meta — $12bn dedicated capacity from early 2027 + up to $15bn additional capacity Nebius will try to sell to third parties first (headline $27bn); Palantir — named preferred partner for sovereign AI infrastructure (Oct 2026, terms undisclosed). - IREN: Microsoft — $9.7bn 5-yr AI cloud contract (the anchor for the $3.65bn IG facility); Dell — delivered first Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 rack (per secondary report); unnamed "leading frontier AI lab" multi-year contract (Aug 2026); Mirantis acquisition (closed 4 Aug 2026, ~12.6m shares + ~$40m) for managed-services software layer.
Insider ownership & 2026 insider trading
- CoreWeave: insiders own ~24.2% (MarketBeat-derived). 2026 trading is dominated by selling, mostly via 10b5-1 plans and tax-withholding sales on RSU vesting: Sep 1 — CEO Intrator 307,692 sh (~$25m) + GC McVeety 156,000 sh (~$13m); Sep 30 — Intrator 78,552, McBee 56,531, Venturo 65,616 shares at $87.69, stated as tax-withholding sales; Aug 17 — McBee 250,000 sh at ~$106 (~$27m); CFO Agrawal and CRO Jones sold in mid-Oct at ~$80/~$77. One aggregation put total insider sales since Nasdaq-100 inclusion (22 Jun) at ~$740m and last-quarter sales at 5,850,311 shares (~$510m) — the $740m figure is unverified. No notable open-market insider buying in 2026 was found. Magnetar funds also sold (e.g. ~1.28m shares in late April at ~$119–121).
- Nebius: CEO Arkady Volozh is a 10% owner; Class B founder control exists but the exact insider % was not verified. 1 Oct — Volozh sold 37,778 sh at $234.16 (~$8.85m), stated as non-discretionary RSU tax-withholding; CTO Danila Shtan sold 14,546 sh. No insider buying found.
- IREN: insiders own ~5.0%. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts sold 1,000,000 sh at $33.131 (~$33.1m) via Awassi Capital Trust #2 (Form 4 reported in Sep 2025 data — date ambiguous in the aggregator). 1 Jul 2026 — each co-CEO (Daniel & William Roberts) granted 9,099,328 time-based share rights (~$275.9m grant value each per proxy), vesting over 4 years + 2-yr holding period. No notable 2026 open-market insider buying found.
Who funded the big 2026 raises
- CoreWeave Sept 2026 ($4.2bn converts + 35m-share ATM): converts were a 144A private placement to qualified institutional buyers — specific buyers not disclosed; capped-call banks listed above. ATM agents: Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley, MUFG, Citigroup, Crédit Agricole, SG Americas, TD, Wells Fargo (incl. forward sellers DB, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi under a collared forward). Amount actually raised via the ATM was not disclosed as of 15 Oct.
- Nebius Aug 2026 ($5.75bn converts + ATM): converts were a 144A private placement — specific buyers not disclosed; $800m of existing notes were exchanged with "a limited number of holders" (unnamed). The ATM is the Nov 2025 programme (see above); Q2 ATM proceeds ~$2.8bn. No separate August ATM raise was found.
- IREN 2026 raises: converts were 144A private placements — specific buyers not disclosed; bookrunners on the Dec 2025 deal were Citi, Goldman, J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Cantor, Mizuho (co-managers Canaccord, Macquarie, Moelis, Roth). The $3.65bn Microsoft facility was arranged by Goldman Sachs + J.P. Morgan. The $2.4bn August facility was led by Blue Owl Capital funds with PIMCO participating. The Dec 2025 $1.63bn equity placement that funded the old-note repurchase — specific buyers not disclosed.
Short interest (latest available, settlement 30 Sep 2026 per MarketBeat)
| Company | Shares short | % of float | Days to cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave | 59,952,639 | 17.24% | 1.8 |
| Nebius | 44,695,449 | 17.66% | 2.7 |
| IREN | not stated on page | 21.82% | n/a |
All three are heavily shorted (>17% of float) — a strong negative-sentiment signal, with two qualifications: (a) a large part of NBIS (and some CRWV/IREN) short interest is convertible-arbitrage hedging by note holders, not directional bets; (b) IREN's figure conflicts with an older Barchart snapshot showing 26.37% short float — the MarketBeat 21.82% is the latest found but its settlement date is not stated on the page.
Conclusion — Confidence ratings (1–10, comparative analysis only)
| Rank | Company | Rating | One-line rationale | Single development that would most raise / lower the rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nebius | 6/10 | Lowest net leverage, prepayment-funded build, low-coupon converts — but capex dwarfs revenue and dilution is the business model. | Raise: sustained prepayment flow + on-time Meta/Microsoft delivery proving the $7–9bn exit-ARR guide. Lower: prepayments dry up or a marquee customer delays, forcing a dilutive raise into a falling stock. |
| 2 | IREN | 4/10 | Cash roughly covers debt and the Microsoft facility is genuinely investment-grade — but FY26 revenue was only $707m against a $30bn FY27 capex ambition. | Raise: a second investment-grade, contract-backed facility (non-Microsoft customer) at ~6% proving the model is repeatable. Lower: failure to fund FY27 capex without heavy equity issuance, or confirmed operational problems at BC sites. |
| 3 | CoreWeave | 3/10 | Real scale ($12.4–13.2bn guided revenue, $104bn backlog) is overwhelmed by $51.6bn debt+leases, ~15–16% secondary yields, and interest at ~5x adjusted operating income. | Raise: a large, credible, low-cost funding package (e.g. Nvidia/insurer-backed investment-grade facility) that re-prices the 2032 notes back toward ~10%. Lower: loss of new-issue market access, a DSCR/covenant breach, or a top-3 customer delay/scale-back. |
For a growth-oriented, volatility-tolerant investor, Nebius offers the best risk-adjusted exposure to the neocloud build-out because its funding model (prepayments + low-coupon converts + near-zero net debt at Q2) gives it the most time; IREN is a higher-beta option on execution of a much smaller base; CoreWeave is the most binary — the backlog is real, but the capital structure is priced for distress and equity is the residual claim beneath ~$52bn of debt and leases.
Could not verify
- Per-tranche principals for CoreWeave's 9.750% 2031 and 8.500% 2032 senior notes; consolidated interest-coverage covenant terms (only DDTL 5.5 DSCR found); exact % of 2026 capex already funded for any of the three (no company discloses a single funded-% figure).
- A single consistent Nebius total-debt figure: Q2 sources cite both ~$8.5bn and ~$17.6bn gross debt; the difference (lease/prepayment/convertible carrying treatment) could not be reconciled from public summaries. Net debt ~$0.5bn (cash $8.0bn) is the more consistent anchor.
- Specific buyers of any of the three companies' 2026 convertible offerings (144A, undisclosed); amount actually raised under CoreWeave's Sept ATM; IREN's exact settlement date for the 21.82% short-interest figure; CoreWeave's ~$740m cumulative insider-sale aggregation; Nebius insider ownership % / Volozh Class B voting power; the ~$250bn Nebius 5GW funding-need estimate (second-hand).
- IREN's $2.8bn "other GPU financings" breakdown beyond the $2.4bn Blue Owl/PIMCO facility.
Sources
- Finance data:
data/crwv.json,data/nbis.json,data/iren.json(fetched 2026-10-15T18:56Z). - CoreWeave Q2 2026 balance sheet / results: https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/36476/coreweave-signs-new-compute-contracts-at-approximately-40-million-per-megawatt ; https://www.indmoney.com/blog/us-stocks/crwv-stock-jumps-coreweave-q2-earnings-analysis ; https://aistockwire.com/blog/oracle-orcl-coreweave-crwv-ai-debt-compared
- CoreWeave Sept converts + ATM: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260917137088/en/CoreWeave-Prices-Upsized-%243.7-Billion-Convertible-Senior-Notes-Offering ; https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:de4a0f0a1a82c:0-coreweave-completes-4-2-billion-2-875-convertible-notes-offering-due-2033/ ; https://markets.financialcontent.com/mammothtimes/article/bizwire-2026-9-17-coreweave-announces-at-the-market-offering-program
- CoreWeave bonds/ratings/strategy: https://www.barrons.com/articles/coreweave-stock-price-ai-debt-nvidia-rescue-3fb8a7f2 ; https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/coreweaves-ai-contracts-lenders-financing-its-build-out-2026-10-15/ (opened live) ; https://fourweekmba.com/ai-coreweave-falls-16-as-yield-on-its-2032-bonds-nears-15/ ; https://www.tradingnews.com/news/coreweave-sinks-to-60-usd-as-cds-spread-top-1000bp-and-35b-usd-debt ; https://www.cryptopolitan.com/coreweave-new-funding-pool-as-ai-debt-mounts/
- CoreWeave DDTL 5.5 terms: https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CRWV/8-k-core-weave-inc-reports-material-event-51aac4a67769.html ; DDTL 5.0: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260518337916/en/CoreWeave-Closes-%243.1-Billion-Loan-Facility-Expanding-Access-to-Public-Markets-for-GPU-Backed-Financing
- Nebius converts: https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-5-75-billion ; https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260819924159/en/Nebius-Group-announces-pricing-of-upsized-private-offering-of-%245.0-billion-of-convertible-senior-notes ; https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/NBIS/6-k-nebius-group-n-v-current-report-foreign-issuer-ed5cbbc9c433.html
- Nebius Q2 / Nvidia 13G: https://markets.financialcontent.com/bentoncourier/article/bizwire-2026-8-12-nebius-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results ; https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/NBIS/schedule-13g-nebius-group-n-v-passive-investment-disclosure-5-217fda175b0d.html ; https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nebius-vs-coreweave-ai-stock
- IREN 10-K FY26: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000052/iren-20260630.htm ; FY26 results: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/27/3352401/0/en/iren-reports-fy26-results.html
- IREN converts/facilities: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/12/08/3201998/0/en/IREN-Closes-2-3-Billion-Convertible-Notes-Offering-and-the-Repurchase-of-Existing-Convertible-Notes.html ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/12/3292606/0/en/IREN-Prices-Upsized-2-6-Billion-Convertible-Notes-Offering.html ; https://pr.hattiesburg.com/article/IREN-Closes-dollar365bn-Investment-Grade-GPU-Financing/6a1d6836004597ee6ba13f03 ; https://www.ainvest.com/news/blue-owl-2-4-billion-loan-iren-prices-contract-chip-2608/
- Holders/insiders/short interest: https://cryptobriefing.com/coreweave-institutional-holders-rise-1125/ ; https://www.MarketBeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CRWV/institutional-ownership/ ; https://www.MarketBeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NBIS/institutional-ownership/ ; https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/IREN/institutional-ownership/ ; https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/CRWV/short-interest/ ; https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NBIS/short-interest/ ; https://marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/IREN/short-interest/ ; https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2026/10/05/nebius-nasdaq-nbis-ceo-sells-37778-shares-in-tax-covering-filing.html ; https://www.ainvest.com/news/coreweave-38-million-insider-sale-pre-planned-signal-borrowed-gpus-2609/
- Nvidia stakes: https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-invests-2-billion-coreweave-expands-partnership-2026-01-26/ ; https://aistockwire.com/blog/iren-semianalysis-british-columbia-sites-worst-nvidia-70-october-2026
- Working notes:
notes/sources.md.
v1.0 — original publication, Oct 15, 2026; no corrections.