Intel beat every number — and fell 20%. This season, the market is pricing cash.
Intel beat its sales and profit forecasts, then fell about 20% in one evening — because its free cash flow came in at half the expected level and next year’s was guided to roughly zero. We tested the same pattern across eight big reporters.
Read the case study →Source: the case study’s dataset — company releases and cited coverage, October 2026. AH = after-hours move; the rest are next-session closes.
The newest work
Three lines each — the full reports are one click away.
Reports
Everything we have published, in full. Filter by type, company, sector or programme — the newest six are here; the whole library is one click away.
Intel beat every number and fell 20% — is this season pricing cash, not profit?
Intel beat its sales and profit forecasts, then fell about 20% in an evening — because its free cash flow came in at half the expected level and next year’s was guided to roughly zero. We tested the same pattern across eight big reporters…
Read the full report →Meta: record sales, a falling price, and the glasses nobody is pricing
Meta (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) just had its best sales quarter ever — yet its share price has fallen 20% because its spending on AI computers is now bigger than the cash its ads business brin…
Read the full report →Intel under the microscope: six years, four leadership eras, one verdict
We looked at Intel's last six years, chief executive by chief executive. The middle years spent very heavily and the share price fell hard; the newest leadership has beaten its own sales promises s…
Read the full report →Who owns Intel, and are the big owners buying or selling?
We counted who owns Intel, using official filings. Big investment firms hold about 78% of the shares, the U.S. Government about 9%, and company leaders almost none. Last quarter the big firms were …
Read the full report →The day before Intel's results: traders were betting on good news
A dated snapshot, taken on the morning of Oct 28, 2026 — the day before Intel's Oct 29 results. Traders were betting on good news: bets on the price rising (calls) heavily outnumbered bets on it fa…
Read the full report →70 years of crashes: early warning signs, lead times, and false alarms
Which warning signs really showed up before past crashes, how early, and how often they cried wolf — plus today's grades for five economies.
Read the full report →Stock X-Rays
One honest page for every company in the S&P 500 — what it is worth, and how its sales, profit and cash have moved, all from SEC filings. Each carries a valuation label we record today and score later.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Fastest growth in the set, yet a lower multiple than peers — about 18× expected profit.
Microsoft (MSFT)
About 27× expected profit, near peers and below its own usual price; ~18% sales growth supports it.
Apple (AAPL)
Excellent business, top price — about 38× next year’s expected profit vs ~24× for peers.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
America’s strongest bank at its richest price in five years — quality with no cushion.
Mastercard (MA)
Cheapest it has been in five years and priced like Visa; steady ~14% sales growth.
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Peak oil profits already in the price — pricier than rival oil giants and its own history.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Down ~62% from its peak and partly recovered; fairly valued if medical costs stay contained.
Caterpillar (CAT)
Strong sales (+24%) and profit (+68%); fairly priced after a one-third fall from its peak.
Five teams, five questions
Each team watches one question, all the time, and publishes what it finds.
How every report here is made
Primary sources only
Every figure is traced to a filing, a company release, or a named dataset — and anything we could not verify is marked as such, never guessed.
Labels pre-registered
Every valuation label is written down with its price, its date, and the evidence that would prove it wrong — before it is scored.
Track record published whole
Hits and misses sit on one page, at the same size. Nothing is quietly edited after the fact; corrections are public.
Scored in public
The current standing, exactly as it sits on the track-record page — including the parts with nothing to score yet.
Get new reports by email
Each new report, sent when it is published. Nothing else, ever.