ExxonMobil (XOM)
Forward P/E 12.30x (SECONDARY) is +48% vs the integrated-major peer median of 8.32x, trailing P/E 23.20x sits above every year-end print of the last five years (8.32-17.96x, 5Y avg ~15x), and P/S 2.05x is ~2x the peer median — all on a cyclically hot earnings base (latest primary quarter revenue +42.3% YoY, net income $14.5B). Not BUBBLE: the absolute forward multiple is modest and in line with US majors CVX/COP, and the price requires oil-driven strength to continue, not to accelerate.
What would change this label: Delivered (not forecast) EPS annualising at >=~$12 with the trailing P/E back in the teens at this price — or a fall to <=~9x forward — moves the label to FAIRLY PRICED; a crude-driven earnings rollover that lifts the forward multiple above ~15x on falling estimates triggers a bubble-risk review.
ExxonMobil is making very strong money right now because oil prices are high, and the share price already reflects that good news. It costs more, relative to its profits, than rival oil giants and more than it usually has over the past five years. It is not in bubble territory, but buyers today are paying full price for a best-case oil market.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window ExxonMobil returned +356.28% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for ExxonMobil: -20.6% (2026-03-30 to 2026-06-29). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E 12.30x (SECONDARY) is +48% vs the integrated-major peer median of 8.32x, trailing P/E 23.20x sits above every year-end print of the last five years (8.32-17.96x, 5Y avg ~15x), and P/S 2.05x is ~2x the peer median — all on a cyclically hot earnings base (latest primary quarter revenue +42.3% YoY, net income $14.5B). Not BUBBLE: the absolute forward multiple is modest and in line with US majors CVX/COP, and the price requires oil-driven strength to continue, not to accelerate. The company’s forward P/E is 12.3× against a peer median of 8.3×. Its own history: Trailing P/E 23.20x vs year-end trailing prints 2021-2025 of 11.35x / 8.32x / 11.25x / 13.72x / 17.96x and a 5-year average of ~15x (SECONDARY annual series, Wisesheets/fullratio, cross-checked vs financecharts 5Y avg 15.05x) — current multiple is above every year-end print of the last five years.. Sector demand read: Oil-price-driven and currently strong: latest primary quarter revenue +42.3% YoY and net income +105% YoY show peak-cycle commodity leverage, so the multiple must be judged against mid-cycle, not peak, earnings. Latest-quarter sales growth was +42.3% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 27, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil (XOM) | $179.91 | 12.3× | 23.2× |
| CVX | $228.23 | 12.0× | 21.9× |
| SHEL | $104.78 | 8.3× | 11.6× |
| COP | $147.96 | 12.3× | 19.7× |
| TTE | $92.35 | 7.2× | 11.8× |
| BP | $48.93 | 6.5× | 23.6× |
| Peer median | 8.3× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $116.0B | — | $14.5B | 3.48 | — |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $85.1B | — | $4.2B | 1.00 | $2.2B |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $82.3B | — | $6.5B | — | $5.2B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $85.3B | — | $7.5B | 1.76 | $6.1B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $81.5B | — | $7.1B | 1.64 | $5.3B |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $83.1B | — | $7.7B | 1.76 | $7.1B |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $83.4B | — | $7.6B | — | $5.4B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $90.0B | — | $8.6B | 1.92 | $11.4B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $93.1B | — | $9.2B | 2.14 | $4.3B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $83.1B | — | $8.2B | 2.06 | $9.6B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $84.3B | — | $7.6B | — | $7.5B |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $90.8B | — | $9.1B | 2.25 | $11.0B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | ExxonMobil Holdings Corp |
| Chief executive | Darren W. Woods (source: ExxonMobil corporate Management Committee page (corporate.exxonmobil.com) — 'Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer' (since Jan 1, 2017), fetched Oct 28, 2026) |
| Sector | Energy — Energy — Integrated Oil & Gas |
| Share price (Oct 27, 2026) | $179.91 |
| Market value (market cap) | $739.8B — share price times shares outstanding of 4,111,911,960 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $368.8B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $32.8B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | — |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +356.28% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -20.6% (2026-03-30 to 2026-06-29) |
What we could not verify
- Registrant chain: the ticker now resolves to a successor registrant (CIK 0002115436); the long filing history sits under the predecessor (CIK 0000034088). Quarters were extracted from each registrant's company facts separately and merged by period end, predecessor winning overlaps.
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Free cash flow is absent for one or more quarters: either the filer does not separately tag PP&E purchases in its EDGAR cash-flow facts (common for banks), or — for a successor registrant's newest quarter — the cash-flow lines are year-to-date without the prior-quarter rung needed to difference them. Affected quarters are null in the data, never estimated.
- TTM free cash flow NOT computable from primary EDGAR facts: the successor registrant (ExxonMobil Holdings Corp, CIK 2115436) carries year-to-date cash-flow lines for Q/E Jun 2026 without the prior-quarter rung, so that quarter's OCF/capex are absent (sources.json); the aggregator's TTM FCF of $30.55B (SECONDARY) is not used as a primary figure.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from EDGAR company facts (standalone Q4 EPS not tagged); trailing P/E is SECONDARY (stockanalysis.com).
- Gross profit / gross margin not tagged as a standalone line in XOM's EDGAR company facts; absent from the primary pack and not used.
- Forward P/E own-history series not retrievable from a named source today; own-history comparison uses trailing P/E annual series (SECONDARY).
- No crude benchmark price was independently fetched in this Phase 1 pass; the oil-leverage read rests on the primary revenue/net-income swing.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002115436.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000034088.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002115436.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/XOM/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.