Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
Forward P/E is 20.10x against a peer median of 10.51x, a ratio of 1.91x — far above the fair range, though below the ~2x bubble threshold and not an extreme absolute multiple for the sector — with trailing P/E 10.62x and PEG 2.94. Latest-quarter revenue fell -18.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so the forward premium assumes a sharp earnings recovery. Delivered demand check: the Property & casualty insurance group's median growth was 0.5% year over year — demand steady across the group, while Cincinnati Financial shrank sharply.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 12.09x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth returns above 8% year over year for two quarters. Move to BUBBLE if the forward P/E rises above about 21.02x (2.00x the peer median) while revenue growth stays below 0% year over year.
Cincinnati Financial sells business and personal insurance through local agents. Its shares cost about 20 times next year's expected profit, nearly double similar insurers at about 11 times, even though its latest sales fell about 18%. That is a high price for a business currently shrinking, so the shares look overvalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Cincinnati Financial returned +126.76% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Cincinnati Financial: -36.6% (2022-04-20 to 2022-09-30). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 20.10x against a peer median of 10.51x, a ratio of 1.91x — far above the fair range, though below the ~2x bubble threshold and not an extreme absolute multiple for the sector — with trailing P/E 10.62x and PEG 2.94. Latest-quarter revenue fell -18.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so the forward premium assumes a sharp earnings recovery. Delivered demand check: the Property & casualty insurance group's median growth was 0.5% year over year — demand steady across the group, while Cincinnati Financial shrank sharply. The company’s forward P/E is 20.1× against a peer median of 10.5×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Property & casualty insurance group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 0.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Latest-quarter sales growth was -18.2% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Financial (CINF) | $181.01 | 20.1× | 10.6× |
| WRB | $72.22 | 15.1× | 15.3× |
| ACGL | $102.49 | 10.5× | 8.4× |
| HIG | $133.29 | 9.9× | 8.1× |
| ALL | $251.16 | 8.6× | 5.0× |
| TRV | $398.72 | 13.0× | 10.4× |
| Peer median | 10.5× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $3.0B | — | $459M | 2.96 | $787M |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $4.3B | — | $1.3B | 8.05 | $698M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $2.9B | — | $274M | 1.75 | $654M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $3.1B | — | $676M | — | $939M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $3.7B | — | $1.1B | 7.11 | $1.1B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $3.2B | — | $685M | 4.34 | $737M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $2.6B | — | $-90M | -0.57 | $307M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $2.5B | — | $405M | — | $638M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $3.3B | — | $820M | 5.20 | $906M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $2.5B | — | $312M | 1.98 | $737M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $2.9B | — | $755M | 4.78 | $346M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $3.4B | — | $1.2B | — | $569M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP |
| Chief executive | Stephen M. Spray (source: https://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaq/cinf/) |
| Sector | Financials — Property & Casualty Insurance — sells commercial and personal property and casualty insurance through independent agents |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $181.01 |
| Market value (market cap) | $27.8B — share price times shares outstanding of 153,510,324 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $13.3B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $2.7B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.1B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +126.76% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -36.6% (2022-04-20 to 2022-09-30) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000020286.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000020286.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CINF/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.