CrowdStrike (CRWD)
All three bubble tests hold. First, forward P/E is 190.4x against a peer median of 41.38x, a ratio of 4.60x — far above the 1.75x bubble threshold. Second, earnings are effectively thin: trailing P/E is 7,297.09x and price/sales is 50.97x, with PEG 6.47. Third, latest-quarter revenue grew +25.8% year over year (PRIMARY, SEC filings/EDGAR), only in line with the systems software cluster median of +24.8%, so at 190.4x forward earnings mere continuation of that growth cannot support the price — it requires demand and earnings to accelerate sharply from here.
What would change this label: Moves down to OVERVALUED if delivered earnings grow into the price — forward P/E compressing below about 72.4x (1.75x the current peer median) and trailing P/E falling below 100x while revenue growth holds at +25% YoY or better; the bubble case strengthens further if revenue growth slows below +15% YoY while the forward P/E stays above 100x.
CrowdStrike's shares cost about 190 times next year's expected earnings, while similar software companies cost about 41 times, and its past earnings are so small the price-to-earnings ratio runs into the thousands. Sales are growing about 26%, which is good but no faster than its rivals. At this price, buyers need growth to speed up a lot, not just carry on — that is what makes it a bubble valuation.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window CrowdStrike returned +646.11% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for CrowdStrike: -67.7% (2021-11-09 to 2023-01-06). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
All three bubble tests hold. First, forward P/E is 190.4x against a peer median of 41.38x, a ratio of 4.60x — far above the 1.75x bubble threshold. Second, earnings are effectively thin: trailing P/E is 7,297.09x and price/sales is 50.97x, with PEG 6.47. Third, latest-quarter revenue grew +25.8% year over year (PRIMARY, SEC filings/EDGAR), only in line with the systems software cluster median of +24.8%, so at 190.4x forward earnings mere continuation of that growth cannot support the price — it requires demand and earnings to accelerate sharply from here. The company’s forward P/E is 190.4× against a peer median of 41.4×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Systems software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 24.8% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +25.8% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike (CRWD) | $269.00 | 190.4× | 7297.1× |
| PANW | $398.00 | 95.3× | 995.0× |
| NOW | $153.70 | 33.9× | 96.0× |
| FTNT | $182.50 | 51.9× | 64.5× |
| TWLO | $255.95 | 41.4× | 35.4× |
| GEN | $24.08 | 8.0× | 14.1× |
| Peer median | 41.4× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jul 2026 2026-07-31 | $1.5B | 74.6% | $5M | 0.01 | $406M |
| Q/E Apr 2026 2026-04-30 | $1.4B | 75.3% | $28M | 0.11 | $493M |
| Q/E Jan 2026 2026-01-31 | $1.3B | 76.1% | $59M | — | $395M |
| Q/E Oct 2025 2025-10-31 | $1.2B | 75.1% | $-34M | -0.14 | $314M |
| Q/E Jul 2025 2025-07-31 | $1.2B | 73.5% | $-78M | -0.31 | $302M |
| Q/E Apr 2025 2025-04-30 | $1.1B | 73.8% | $-110M | -0.44 | $298M |
| Q/E Jan 2025 2025-01-31 | $1.1B | 74.1% | $-92M | — | $259M |
| Q/E Oct 2024 2024-10-31 | $1.0B | 74.8% | $-17M | -0.07 | $247M |
| Q/E Jul 2024 2024-07-31 | $964M | 75.4% | $47M | 0.19 | $287M |
| Q/E Apr 2024 2024-04-30 | $921M | 75.6% | $43M | 0.17 | $334M |
| Q/E Jan 2024 2024-01-31 | $845M | 75.3% | $54M | — | $294M |
| Q/E Oct 2023 2023-10-31 | $786M | 75.2% | $27M | 0.11 | $252M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. |
| Chief executive | George Kurtz (source: https://www.crn.com/news/security/2025/crowdstrike-ceo-next-gen-siem-increasingly-disruptive-to-rivals) |
| Sector | Technology — Systems Software — sells a cloud-delivered cybersecurity platform |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $269.00 |
| Market value (market cap) | $274.4B — share price times shares outstanding of 1,023,934,842 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $5.4B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $58M |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $1.6B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jul 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +646.11% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -67.7% (2021-11-09 to 2023-01-06) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001535527.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001535527.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/CRWD/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.