Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Forward P/E is 18.13x against a peer median of 15.99x, a ratio of 1.13x — inside the 0.90–1.15 fair range, near its top — with trailing P/E 15.29x and PEG 1.29. Latest-quarter revenue grew 7.0% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), ahead of the cluster pace, so the small premium is broadly covered by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the staples retail & food distribution group's median growth was 5.6% year over year — demand steady, and Dollar Tree is growing a little faster than that pace.
What would change this label: Move to UNDERVALUED if the forward P/E compresses to about 14.4x or below (0.90x the peer median) at unchanged estimates while revenue growth stays at or above the cluster pace. Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E rises above about 18.4x (1.15x the peer median) without a matching rise in growth, or if revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Dollar Tree runs discount stores selling everyday goods at low prices. Its shares cost a little more than similar retailers, but its sales are growing a little faster too. On balance the price looks fair — neither a bargain nor expensive.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Dollar Tree returned +31.99% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Dollar Tree: -64.8% (2022-04-20 to 2024-11-11). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 18.13x against a peer median of 15.99x, a ratio of 1.13x — inside the 0.90–1.15 fair range, near its top — with trailing P/E 15.29x and PEG 1.29. Latest-quarter revenue grew 7.0% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), ahead of the cluster pace, so the small premium is broadly covered by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the staples retail & food distribution group's median growth was 5.6% year over year — demand steady, and Dollar Tree is growing a little faster than that pace. The company’s forward P/E is 18.1× against a peer median of 16.0×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the staples retail & food distribution group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 5.6% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Dollar Tree grew 7.0%, a little ahead of that pace. Latest-quarter sales growth was +7.0% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar Tree (DLTR) | $124.66 | 18.1× | 15.3× |
| CASY | $672.83 | 31.7× | 32.4× |
| DG | $125.95 | 15.7× | 16.4× |
| KR | $65.67 | 12.2× | 38.2× |
| SYY | $82.76 | 16.4× | 22.6× |
| TGT | $148.52 | 16.0× | 15.4× |
| Peer median | 16.0× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Aug 2026 2026-08-01 | $4.9B | — | $514M | 2.70 | $675M |
| Q/E May 2026 2026-05-02 | $5.0B | — | $347M | 1.76 | $392M |
| Q/E Jan 2026 2026-01-31 | $5.4B | 39.1% | $506M | — | $968M |
| Q/E Nov 2025 2025-11-01 | $4.7B | 35.8% | $245M | 1.20 | $-57M |
| Q/E Aug 2025 2025-08-02 | $4.6B | 34.4% | $188M | 0.91 | $16M |
| Q/E May 2025 2025-05-03 | $4.6B | 35.6% | $343M | 1.61 | $130M |
| Q/E Feb 2025 2025-02-01 | $5.0B | 37.6% | $-3.7B | -17.17 | $956M |
| Q/E Nov 2024 2024-11-02 | $7.6B | 30.9% | $233M | 1.08 | $359M |
| Q/E Aug 2024 2024-08-03 | $7.4B | 30.0% | $132M | 0.62 | $-194M |
| Q/E May 2024 2024-05-04 | $7.6B | 30.8% | $300M | 1.38 | $224M |
| Q/E Feb 2024 2024-02-03 | $5.0B | 39.0% | $-1.7B | -7.83 | $471M |
| Q/E Oct 2023 2023-10-28 | $7.3B | 29.7% | $212M | 0.97 | $-36M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | DOLLAR TREE, INC. |
| Chief executive | Mike Creedon (source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261022444748/en/Dollar-Tree-Marks-40th-Anniversary-with-9500th-Store-Opening-and-%2440-Million-Commitment-to-Communities) |
| Sector | Consumer Staples — Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail — runs discount variety stores selling food, household goods and seasonal items at low prices |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $124.66 |
| Market value (market cap) | $23.2B — share price times shares outstanding of 187,630,299 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $20.0B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $1.6B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $2.0B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Aug 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +31.99% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -64.8% (2022-04-20 to 2024-11-11) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000935703.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000935703.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/DLTR/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.