Fastenal (FAST)
Forward P/E is 37.30x against a peer median of 19.61x, a ratio of 1.90x — well above the 1.15 overvalued line, though below the about 2x level the bubble test also needs — with trailing P/E 41.58x and PEG 3.05. Latest-quarter revenue grew 15.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far above the group pace, but the growth exception also needs a PEG at or below about 1.5 and the PEG is 3.05, so the label is overvalued. Delivered demand check: the Business services, data & distribution group's median growth was 7.2% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing much faster than that pace, just not fast enough for its multiple.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 22.6x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if the PEG falls to about 1.5 or below while revenue growth stays above 15% year over year. Move to BUBBLE if the forward P/E rises to about 39.2x or above (2.00x the peer median) at unchanged estimates.
Fastenal distributes fasteners and industrial supplies to factories and construction sites. Its shares cost nearly twice as much per dollar of expected earnings as similar companies, even though sales grew a strong 15.5%. That makes the shares look overvalued — the growth is strong, but not strong enough for such a large premium.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Fastenal returned +108.32% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Fastenal: -31.9% (2021-12-29 to 2022-10-14). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 37.30x against a peer median of 19.61x, a ratio of 1.90x — well above the 1.15 overvalued line, though below the about 2x level the bubble test also needs — with trailing P/E 41.58x and PEG 3.05. Latest-quarter revenue grew 15.5% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far above the group pace, but the growth exception also needs a PEG at or below about 1.5 and the PEG is 3.05, so the label is overvalued. Delivered demand check: the Business services, data & distribution group's median growth was 7.2% year over year — demand steady, and this company is growing much faster than that pace, just not fast enough for its multiple. The company’s forward P/E is 37.3× against a peer median of 19.6×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Business services, data & distribution group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 7.2% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady, and this company is growing much faster than that pace at 15.5%. Latest-quarter sales growth was +15.5% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastenal (FAST) | $51.14 | 37.3× | 41.6× |
| URI | — | 19.8× | 25.9× |
| FERG | — | 19.4× | 22.5× |
| PAYX | — | 17.9× | 21.4× |
| VRSK | — | 23.0× | 28.9× |
| EFX | — | 19.6× | 28.7× |
| Peer median | 19.6× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $2.5B | 44.9% | $402M | 0.35 | $348M |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $2.4B | 44.6% | $383M | 0.33 | $202M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $2.2B | 44.6% | $340M | 0.30 | $320M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $2.0B | 44.3% | $294M | — | $308M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $2.1B | 45.3% | $336M | 0.29 | $327M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $2.1B | 45.3% | $330M | 0.29 | $209M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $2.0B | 45.1% | $299M | 0.52 | $206M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $1.8B | 44.9% | $262M | — | $223M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $1.9B | 45.0% | $298M | 0.52 | $238M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $1.9B | 45.1% | $293M | 0.51 | $202M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $1.9B | 45.5% | $298M | 0.52 | $285M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $1.8B | 45.5% | $266M | — | $318M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | FASTENAL CO |
| Chief executive | Jeffery Watts (source: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/fastenal-ceo-daniel-florness-step-down-2025-12-22/) |
| Sector | Industrials — Trading Companies & Distributors — distributes fasteners and industrial supplies to factories and construction sites |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $51.14 |
| Market value (market cap) | $59.1B — share price times shares outstanding of 1,147,301,488 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $9.1B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $1.4B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $1.2B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +108.32% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -31.9% (2021-12-29 to 2022-10-14) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E (5-year median): not computed in the Phase 1 batch — UNVERIFIED
- Brief fetch note: CEO transition — Jeffery Watts replaced Daniel Florness effective July 16, 2026 per the Reuters source in the raw capture.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000815556.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000815556.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/FAST/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.