Strativest CapitalSTRATIVEST RESEARCH
Independent research · Est. October 2026
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Stock X-Ray · Health Care · S&P 500 Full Coverage — Phase 1

Incyte (INCY)

X-Ray dated Oct 28, 2026 · Share price as of Oct 28, 2026 intraday, when the valuation snapshot was captured · Financials from SEC filings (EDGAR) · Valuation multiples from a labelled secondary source
The verdict — valuation label: BUBBLE

Forward P/E is 56.88x against a peer median of 12.56x, a ratio of 4.53x — more than four times the peer median — with trailing P/E 15.00x and PEG 5.18. Latest-quarter revenue grew 20.9% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far above the group pace, but a PEG of 5.18 is far above 1.5, so the growth exception does not apply; the forward multiple sitting far above the trailing multiple also means near-term expected earnings are much lower than trailing earnings, so the price only makes sense if earnings rebound and accelerate sharply. Delivered demand check: the biotechnology & pharmaceuticals group's median growth was 9.5% — demand steady, and Incyte grows much faster than that pace, yet even that growth does not pay for a multiple this extreme.

56.9×
Forward P/E — price vs next year’s expected earnings (secondary source)
12.6×
Peer median forward P/E — closest comparable companies
15.0×
Trailing P/E — price vs the last twelve months of earnings
4.1×
Price / sales

What would change this label: Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E compresses to about 25.1x or below (2.00x the peer median) at unchanged estimates as forward earnings recover. Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 14.4x or below (1.15x the peer median), or if delivered earnings growth brings the PEG to about 1.5 or below while revenue growth holds above 15% year over year for two quarters.

In simple words

Incyte sells medicines for cancer and inflammation, led by a drug for certain blood cancers. Its sales are growing fast, at about 21%, but its shares cost about 57 times next year's expected earnings — more than four times similar drug companies — because profits are expected to dip before they recover. Paying that much for a recovery that has not happened yet is a bubble price.

Words we use, in plain English: P/E ratio — the share price divided by earnings per share; how many dollars you pay for one dollar of yearly profit. Forward P/E — the same, using next year’s expected earnings. Free cash flow — cash a company has left after running the business and buying equipment. TTM — the last twelve months. Drawdown — the worst fall from a peak to the low after it.
The share price vs the market — six years
Incyte (INCY)S&P 500 (SPY)
42901381862342021202220232024202520262020-09-012026-10-27

Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Incyte returned +25.42% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Incyte: -49.1% (2021-01-25 to 2024-04-25). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.

What the label rests on

Forward P/E is 56.88x against a peer median of 12.56x, a ratio of 4.53x — more than four times the peer median — with trailing P/E 15.00x and PEG 5.18. Latest-quarter revenue grew 20.9% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far above the group pace, but a PEG of 5.18 is far above 1.5, so the growth exception does not apply; the forward multiple sitting far above the trailing multiple also means near-term expected earnings are much lower than trailing earnings, so the price only makes sense if earnings rebound and accelerate sharply. Delivered demand check: the biotechnology & pharmaceuticals group's median growth was 9.5% — demand steady, and Incyte grows much faster than that pace, yet even that growth does not pay for a multiple this extreme. The company’s forward P/E is 56.9× against a peer median of 12.6×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the biotechnology & pharmaceuticals group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 9.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Incyte grew 20.9%, much faster than that pace. Latest-quarter sales growth was +20.9% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).

CompanyPrice (Oct 28, 2026)Forward P/ETrailing P/E
Incyte (INCY)$117.7556.9×15.0×
VTRS$18.857.4×—
ZTS$78.4912.7×12.8×
BIIB$255.4016.8×109.4×
MRNA$217.40——
REGN$818.9312.4×20.2×
Peer median12.6×

Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.

Sales, profit and cash

Sales and profit each quarter
SalesNet income (profit)
$0B$1B$1B$2BSep 2020Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 2025Mar 2026

This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.

Cash left over each quarter (free cash flow)
PositiveNegative
$-0B$0B$0BSep 2020Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 2025Mar 2026

Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.

QuarterSalesGross marginNet incomeEPS (GAAP, diluted)Free cash flow
Q/E Mar 2026
2026-03-31
$1.3B—$303M1.47—
Q/E Dec 2025
2025-12-31
$1.5B—$299M——
Q/E Sep 2025
2025-09-30
$1.4B—$424M2.11—
Q/E Jun 2025
2025-06-30
$1.2B—$405M2.04—
Q/E Mar 2025
2025-03-31
$1.1B—$158M0.80—
Q/E Dec 2024
2024-12-31
$1.2B—$201M——
Q/E Sep 2024
2024-09-30
$1.1B—$106M0.54—
Q/E Jun 2024
2024-06-30
$1.0B—$-445M-2.04—
Q/E Mar 2024
2024-03-31
$881M—$170M0.75—
Q/E Dec 2023
2023-12-31
$1.0B—$201M——
Q/E Sep 2023
2023-09-30
$919M—$171M0.76—
Q/E Jun 2023
2023-06-30
$955M—$204M0.90—

The last twelve reported quarters. Full 23-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.

Earnings: getting better or worse?

Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.

Jun 2022
0.72
Sep 2022
0.50
Dec 2022
—
Mar 2023
0.10
Jun 2023
0.90
Sep 2023
0.76
Dec 2023
—
Mar 2024
0.75
Jun 2024
-2.04
Sep 2024
0.54
Dec 2024
—
Mar 2025
0.80
Jun 2025
2.04
Sep 2025
2.11
Dec 2025
—
Mar 2026
1.47

Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

Key facts

ItemValue
Company (legal name in filings)INCYTE CORP
Chief executiveBill Meury (source: https://incyte.com/our-company/our-leadership)
SectorHealth Care — Biotechnology — sells medicines for cancer and inflammation, including the blood-cancer drug Jakafi
Share price (Oct 28, 2026)$117.75
Market value (market cap)$23.3B — share price times shares outstanding of 199,782,155 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest))
Sales, last twelve months$5.4B
Net income, last twelve months$1.4B
Free cash flow, last twelve months—
Latest reported quarterQ/E Mar 2026 (of 23 quarters in the data pack)
Six-year price return vs S&P 500+25.42% vs +118.28%
Worst peak-to-trough fall-49.1% (2021-01-25 to 2024-04-25)

What we could not verify

  • Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
  • TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
  • Free cash flow is absent for one or more quarters: either the filer does not separately tag PP&E purchases in its EDGAR cash-flow facts (common for banks), or — for a successor registrant's newest quarter — the cash-flow lines are year-to-date without the prior-quarter rung needed to difference them. Affected quarters are null in the data, never estimated.
  • Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
  • Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.

The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.

Sources

  • SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000879169.json
  • SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares. https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000879169.json
  • Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates. https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/INCY/historical?assetclass=stocks
  • Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.

Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.

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