Moody's (MCO)
Forward P/E is 26.43x against a peer median of 23.02x, a ratio of 1.15x — at the top of the fair range — with trailing P/E 29.11x and PEG 2.24. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 0.8% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far below the cluster median and with PEG above 2, so the label moves to OVERVALUED: the premium is not paid for by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the Financial exchanges, data & ratings group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 10.7% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising.
What would change this label: The fair band is 20.72x to 26.47x (0.90x to 1.15x the peer median of 23.02x). Move to FAIRLY PRICED if revenue growth rises to at least 10.7% year over year, the cluster median, for two quarters with PEG falling to 2.0 or below, or if the forward P/E compresses well below 26.47x toward 20.72x at unchanged estimates. Move further from fair value if the forward P/E rises above 26.47x while revenue growth stays below 3% year over year.
Moody's provides credit ratings and financial research that lenders rely on, but the shares trade at about 26 times next year's expected earnings, a little above similar companies at about 23 times. Sales grew only 0.8% in the latest quarter, much slower than the wider group. That makes the shares look overvalued — a strong business priced ahead of its recent growth.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Moody's returned +60.10% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Moody's: -42.1% (2021-10-28 to 2022-10-14). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 26.43x against a peer median of 23.02x, a ratio of 1.15x — at the top of the fair range — with trailing P/E 29.11x and PEG 2.24. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 0.8% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), far below the cluster median and with PEG above 2, so the label moves to OVERVALUED: the premium is not paid for by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the Financial exchanges, data & ratings group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 10.7% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. The company’s forward P/E is 26.4× against a peer median of 23.0×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Financial exchanges, data & ratings group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 10.7% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +0.8% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moody's (MCO) | $476.73 | 26.4× | 29.1× |
| ICE | $154.97 | 18.6× | 21.9× |
| CME | $292.31 | 22.6× | 24.0× |
| NDAQ | $105.30 | 23.0× | 28.8× |
| MSCI | $605.62 | 27.9× | 32.1× |
| COIN | $157.99 | 105.7× | — |
| Peer median | 23.0× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $2.0B | — | $734M | 4.24 | $668M |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $2.2B | — | $878M | 5.03 | $688M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $2.1B | — | $661M | 3.73 | $844M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $1.9B | — | $610M | — | $777M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $2.0B | — | $646M | 3.60 | $658M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $1.9B | — | $578M | 3.21 | $468M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $1.9B | — | $625M | 3.46 | $672M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $1.7B | — | $395M | — | $600M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $1.8B | — | $534M | 2.93 | $631M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $1.8B | — | $552M | 3.02 | $593M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $1.8B | — | $577M | 3.15 | $697M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $1.5B | — | $340M | — | $404M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | MOODYS CORP /DE/ |
| Chief executive | Rob Fauber (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moody%27s_Corporation) |
| Sector | Financials — Financial Exchanges & Data — provides credit ratings, research and risk analytics to lenders and investors |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $476.73 |
| Market value (market cap) | $81.7B — share price times shares outstanding of 172,400,000 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $8.2B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $2.9B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.0B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +60.10% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -42.1% (2021-10-28 to 2022-10-14) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001059556.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001059556.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/MCO/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.