NRG Energy (NRG)
Forward P/E is 9.51x against a peer median of 16.88x, a ratio of 0.56x — well below the 0.90 undervalued line — with trailing P/E 24.95x and PEG 0.47. Latest-quarter revenue grew 9.7% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), above the peer pace, so the value-trap check passes: revenue is rising, not shrinking. Delivered demand check: the electric utilities group's median growth was 8.0% year over year — demand rising, and NRG is growing faster than that pace.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E rises above about 15.2x (0.90x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth falls to 0% or below for two quarters while the forward multiple stays below 10x. Move further from fair value if revenue growth stays above 8% year over year and the forward P/E stays below 12x.
NRG generates and sells electricity across the United States. Its shares trade at only about 10 times expected earnings, a little over half the level of similar companies, while sales grew about 10%. On those numbers the shares look undervalued, though past earnings were much weaker than the earnings expected ahead.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window NRG Energy returned +178.81% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for NRG Energy: -49.8% (2026-02-24 to 2026-10-23). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 9.51x against a peer median of 16.88x, a ratio of 0.56x — well below the 0.90 undervalued line — with trailing P/E 24.95x and PEG 0.47. Latest-quarter revenue grew 9.7% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), above the peer pace, so the value-trap check passes: revenue is rising, not shrinking. Delivered demand check: the electric utilities group's median growth was 8.0% year over year — demand rising, and NRG is growing faster than that pace. The company’s forward P/E is 9.5× against a peer median of 16.9×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the electric utilities group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 8.0% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. NRG grew 9.7%, faster than that pace. Latest-quarter sales growth was +9.7% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRG Energy (NRG) | $96.52 | 9.5× | 24.9× |
| EVRG | $85.13 | 18.8× | 21.7× |
| LNT | $70.05 | 19.3× | 22.2× |
| EIX | $58.69 | 9.6× | 6.1× |
| ES | $67.43 | 14.4× | 17.5× |
| PPL | $35.27 | 16.9× | 20.9× |
| Peer median | 16.9× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $7.3B | — | $506M | 2.31 | $779M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $10.1B | — | $125M | 0.52 | $-486M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $7.7B | — | $66M | — | $-175M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $7.5B | — | $152M | 0.69 | $230M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $6.7B | — | $-104M | -0.62 | $73M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $8.5B | — | $750M | 3.61 | $638M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $6.8B | — | $643M | — | $766M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $7.1B | — | $-767M | -3.79 | $-83M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $6.5B | — | $738M | 3.37 | $953M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $7.4B | — | $511M | 2.31 | $198M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $6.7B | — | $482M | — | $136M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $7.9B | — | $343M | 1.41 | $397M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | NRG ENERGY, INC. |
| Chief executive | Robert J. Gaudette (source: https://www.nrg.com/en/about/our-leadership/robert-j-gaudette) |
| Sector | Utilities — Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders — sells electricity generation and retail power services to homes and businesses across the United States |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $96.52 |
| Market value (market cap) | $20.0B — share price times shares outstanding of 210,210,483 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $32.6B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $849M |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $348M |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +178.81% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -49.8% (2026-02-24 to 2026-10-23) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001013871.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001013871.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/NRG/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.