PayPal (PYPL)
Forward P/E is 9.56x against a peer median of 7.48x, a ratio of 1.28x — above the fair range — with trailing P/E 10.63x and PEG 1.42. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 2.0% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), well below the cluster median, so the premium is not paid for by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the Payments & consumer finance group's median growth was 9.3% — demand rising across the group, while this company grows at 2.0%, so the above-median multiple rests on a recovery that has not yet been delivered.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 8.60x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth rises to about 9.3% year over year or above (the cluster median) for two quarters. Move further from fair value if revenue growth falls below 0% year over year while the forward P/E stays above 8.60x.
PayPal is a large, profitable online payments company, but its sales grew only about 2% in the latest quarter, slower than similar companies. Its shares still cost a bit more than those peers per dollar of expected profit. Paying a premium for slower growth makes the shares overvalued, though not by a huge margin.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window PayPal returned -73.15% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for PayPal: -87.3% (2021-07-23 to 2026-02-12). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 9.56x against a peer median of 7.48x, a ratio of 1.28x — above the fair range — with trailing P/E 10.63x and PEG 1.42. Latest-quarter revenue grew only 2.0% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), well below the cluster median, so the premium is not paid for by delivered growth. Delivered demand check: the Payments & consumer finance group's median growth was 9.3% — demand rising across the group, while this company grows at 2.0%, so the above-median multiple rests on a recovery that has not yet been delivered. The company’s forward P/E is 9.6× against a peer median of 7.5×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Payments & consumer finance group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 9.3% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +2.0% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| PayPal (PYPL) | $55.91 | 9.6× | 10.6× |
| XYZ | $75.15 | 16.4× | 127.7× |
| CPAY | $395.00 | 13.5× | 24.1× |
| FISV | $47.49 | 6.5× | 9.1× |
| SYF | $74.99 | 7.5× | 7.9× |
| GPN | $82.10 | 5.6× | — |
| Peer median | 7.5× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $8.6B | — | $1.1B | 1.25 | $1.4B |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $8.7B | — | $1.1B | 1.25 | $1.8B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $8.4B | — | $1.1B | 1.21 | $903M |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $8.7B | — | $1.4B | — | $2.2B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $8.4B | — | $1.2B | 1.30 | $1.7B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $8.3B | — | $1.3B | 1.29 | $692M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $7.8B | — | $1.3B | 1.29 | $964M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $8.4B | — | $1.1B | — | $2.2B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $7.8B | — | $1.0B | 0.99 | $1.4B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $7.9B | — | $1.1B | 1.08 | $1.4B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $7.7B | — | $888M | 0.83 | $1.8B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $8.0B | — | $1.4B | — | $2.5B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | PayPal Holdings, Inc. |
| Chief executive | Enrique Lores (source: https://www.reuters.com/business/paypal-raises-2026-profit-forecast-turnaround-gains-traction-2026-10-27/) |
| Sector | Financials — Transaction & Payment Processing Services — runs online payment services that let people and businesses send money and pay online |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $55.91 |
| Market value (market cap) | $46.6B — share price times shares outstanding of 830,658,298 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $34.3B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $4.7B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $6.3B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | -73.15% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -87.3% (2021-07-23 to 2026-02-12) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001633917.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001633917.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/PYPL/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.