Supermicro (SMCI)
The mechanical test screams cheap: forward P/E is 7.53x against a peer median of 13.19x, a ratio of 0.57x, with a PEG of 0.33 and revenue up 93.2% year over year in the latest quarter (PRIMARY, EDGAR). This is, however, the low-P/E trap case the programme flags: at 0.59x sales and a 10.84x trailing P/E, the brief's own figures imply only about five cents of profit per dollar of sales — wafer-thin AI-server assembly margins at the hottest point of the hardware cycle, with the whole group growing at a 48.5% median pace. A very low forward P/E on peak-cycle, thin-margin earnings is not automatically undervalued, because the 'E' is the number most likely to shrink when the cycle turns. Delivered demand check: the Technology hardware & storage group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 48.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising, which is precisely why current earnings should be treated as cyclically flattered. The label is therefore capped at fairly priced.
What would change this label: Moves to UNDERVALUED if revenue growth holds above +40% year over year for two more quarters while the shares stay near a 7.5x forward P/E and the implied profit per sales dollar thickens above ~8%, showing the earnings are durable rather than peak-cycle. Moves to OVERVALUED if revenue growth turns negative year over year or halves from the 93.2% print while the price holds, because peak earnings fading under a low multiple is exactly the trap this label is guarding against.
Supermicro's shares look very cheap — about 8 times next year's expected profit, with sales nearly doubling in a year. The catch is that it keeps only about five cents of profit from each dollar of server sales, and today's sales are riding the peak of the AI hardware boom. If those profits last, the shares are a bargain; if the boom cools, the profits shrink and the 'cheap' price was a mirage — so the fair label is fairly priced, not undervalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Supermicro returned +1196.27% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Supermicro: -84.8% (2024-03-13 to 2024-11-14). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
The mechanical test screams cheap: forward P/E is 7.53x against a peer median of 13.19x, a ratio of 0.57x, with a PEG of 0.33 and revenue up 93.2% year over year in the latest quarter (PRIMARY, EDGAR). This is, however, the low-P/E trap case the programme flags: at 0.59x sales and a 10.84x trailing P/E, the brief's own figures imply only about five cents of profit per dollar of sales — wafer-thin AI-server assembly margins at the hottest point of the hardware cycle, with the whole group growing at a 48.5% median pace. A very low forward P/E on peak-cycle, thin-margin earnings is not automatically undervalued, because the 'E' is the number most likely to shrink when the cycle turns. Delivered demand check: the Technology hardware & storage group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 48.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising, which is precisely why current earnings should be treated as cyclically flattered. The label is therefore capped at fairly priced. The company’s forward P/E is 7.5× against a peer median of 13.2×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Technology hardware & storage group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 48.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +93.2% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supermicro (SMCI) | $35.29 | 7.5× | 10.8× |
| HPQ | $32.85 | 11.1× | 12.5× |
| NTAP | $227.04 | 22.8× | 32.0× |
| P | $138.14 | 42.9× | 191.3× |
| HPE | $60.47 | 13.1× | 30.8× |
| WDC | $380.88 | 13.2× | 14.8× |
| Peer median | 13.2× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $11.1B | 17.5% | $1.2B | — | $719M |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $10.2B | 9.9% | $483M | 0.72 | $-6.7B |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $12.7B | 6.3% | $401M | 0.60 | $-45M |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $5.0B | 9.3% | $168M | 0.26 | $-950M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $5.8B | 9.4% | $195M | — | $841M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $4.6B | 9.6% | $109M | 0.17 | $594M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $5.7B | 11.8% | $321M | 0.51 | $-267M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $5.9B | 13.1% | $424M | 0.67 | $365M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $5.4B | 10.2% | $297M | — | $-656M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $3.9B | 15.5% | $402M | 6.56 | $-1.6B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $3.7B | 15.4% | $296M | 5.10 | $-610M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $2.1B | 16.7% | $157M | 2.75 | $268M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Super Micro Computer, Inc. |
| Chief executive | Charles Liang (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supermicro) |
| Sector | Technology — Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — sells rack-scale AI servers and server systems |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $35.29 |
| Market value (market cap) | $23.1B — share price times shares outstanding of 656,965,384 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $39.1B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $2.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $-7.0B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +1196.27% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -84.8% (2024-03-13 to 2024-11-14) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001375365.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/SMCI/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.