Seagate Technology (STX)
Forward P/E 13.54x is 1.03x the peer median of 13.19x — in line with peers — and PEG 0.19 with latest-quarter revenue growth of +48.5% year over year (PRIMARY/EDGAR) looks extremely cheap, but this is exactly the low-P/E trap: the forward multiple is low because earnings are at a cyclical, AI-driven storage peak (trailing P/E is 32.99x), and P/S has already re-rated to 11.01x, so a low forward P/E on peak-cycle earnings is NOT undervalued and the label is capped at FAIRLY PRICED. Delivered demand check: the cluster median grew +48.5% year over year — demand rising at cycle-peak pace, which cuts both ways.
What would change this label: Moves toward UNDERVALUED if Seagate sustains revenue growth above +25% year over year through the next two quarters while holding margins, showing the earnings level is a new plateau rather than a cycle peak, or if the price falls enough to bring P/S below about 6x at unchanged estimates. Moves toward OVERVALUED if revenue growth turns negative year over year or forward estimates are cut enough to push forward P/E above about 15.2x (1.15x the peer median) — the classic peak-earnings reversal.
Seagate makes hard drives, and AI data centres are buying them at a record pace — sales grew about 49%. Its shares look cheap against next year's expected profit, but that profit is at a cyclical high and the shares already cost 11 times sales, so the price is fair for a boom that may not last.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Seagate Technology returned +1318.84% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Seagate Technology: -58.2% (2022-01-04 to 2022-11-03). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E 13.54x is 1.03x the peer median of 13.19x — in line with peers — and PEG 0.19 with latest-quarter revenue growth of +48.5% year over year (PRIMARY/EDGAR) looks extremely cheap, but this is exactly the low-P/E trap: the forward multiple is low because earnings are at a cyclical, AI-driven storage peak (trailing P/E is 32.99x), and P/S has already re-rated to 11.01x, so a low forward P/E on peak-cycle earnings is NOT undervalued and the label is capped at FAIRLY PRICED. Delivered demand check: the cluster median grew +48.5% year over year — demand rising at cycle-peak pace, which cuts both ways. The company’s forward P/E is 13.5× against a peer median of 13.2×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Technology hardware & storage group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 48.5% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +48.5% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seagate Technology (STX) | $629.00 | 13.5× | 33.0× |
| WDC | $380.88 | 13.2× | 14.8× |
| SNDK | $1,304.84 | 6.1× | 17.7× |
| HPE | $60.47 | 13.1× | 30.8× |
| P | $138.14 | 42.9× | 191.3× |
| NTAP | $227.04 | 22.8× | 32.0× |
| Peer median | 13.2× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jul 2026 2026-07-03 | $3.6B | — | $1.3B | — | $1.1B |
| Q/E Apr 2026 2026-04-03 | $3.1B | — | $748M | 3.27 | $953M |
| Q/E Jan 2026 2026-01-02 | $2.8B | — | $593M | 2.60 | $607M |
| Q/E Oct 2025 2025-10-03 | $2.6B | — | $549M | 2.43 | $427M |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-27 | $2.4B | — | $488M | — | $425M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-28 | $2.2B | — | $340M | 1.57 | $216M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-27 | $2.3B | — | $336M | 1.55 | $150M |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-27 | $2.2B | — | $305M | 1.41 | $27M |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-28 | $1.9B | — | $513M | — | $380M |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-29 | $1.7B | — | $25M | 0.12 | $128M |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-29 | $1.6B | — | $-19M | -0.09 | $99M |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-29 | $1.5B | — | $-184M | -0.88 | $57M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Seagate Technology Holdings plc |
| Chief executive | Dave Mosley (source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261027450936/en/Seagate-Technology-Reports-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2027-Financial-Results) |
| Sector | Technology — Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals — sells hard disk drives and mass-capacity data storage |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $629.00 |
| Market value (market cap) | $151.4B — share price times shares outstanding of 226,644,518 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $12.2B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $3.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.1B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jul 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +1318.84% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -58.2% (2022-01-04 to 2022-11-03) |
What we could not verify
- Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Valuation multiples were captured on Oct 28 at $629.00 while the price series closes Oct 27 at $667.85 — the shares moved between the two; multiples correspond to the captured price.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001137789.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001137789.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/STX/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.