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Independent research · Est. October 2026
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Stock X-Ray · Energy · S&P 500 Full Coverage — Phase 1

Texas Pacific Land (TPL)

X-Ray dated Oct 28, 2026 · Share price as of Oct 28, 2026 intraday, when the valuation snapshot was captured · Financials from SEC filings (EDGAR) · Valuation multiples from a labelled secondary source
The verdict — valuation label: BUBBLE

Forward P/E is 33.63x against a peer median of 10.41x, a ratio of 3.23x — more than three times the peer median — with trailing P/E 42.90x and PEG not available (shown as n/a on the statistics page). Latest-quarter revenue grew 31.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), below the cluster pace, so the price only makes sense if demand accelerates well beyond what has been delivered. Delivered demand check: the Exploration & production group's median growth was 37.2% year over year — demand rising, but this company is growing more slowly than that pace.

33.6×
Forward P/E — price vs next year’s expected earnings (secondary source)
10.4×
Peer median forward P/E — closest comparable companies
42.9×
Trailing P/E — price vs the last twelve months of earnings
25.6×
Price / sales

What would change this label: Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E compresses to about 20.8x or below (2.00x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, and to FAIRLY PRICED if it falls to about 12.0x or below (1.15x the peer median). Move away from a bubble reading on growth only if revenue growth rises far above the cluster median, above about 50% year over year, for two quarters while the multiple stays high.

In simple words

Texas Pacific Land owns large areas of West Texas land and collects royalties when oil and gas are produced there. Its shares cost more than three times as much, for each dollar of expected profit, as other oil and gas producers, even though its sales grew more slowly than theirs. That makes the price a bubble — it needs much faster growth than the company has delivered to make sense.

Words we use, in plain English: P/E ratio — the share price divided by earnings per share; how many dollars you pay for one dollar of yearly profit. Forward P/E — the same, using next year’s expected earnings. Free cash flow — cash a company has left after running the business and buying equipment. TTM — the last twelve months. Drawdown — the worst fall from a peak to the low after it.
The share price vs the market — six years
Texas Pacific Land (TPL)S&P 500 (SPY)
1927252577710302021202220232024202520262020-09-012026-10-27

Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Texas Pacific Land returned +454.08% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Texas Pacific Land: -52.8% (2022-11-07 to 2023-06-23). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.

What the label rests on

Forward P/E is 33.63x against a peer median of 10.41x, a ratio of 3.23x — more than three times the peer median — with trailing P/E 42.90x and PEG not available (shown as n/a on the statistics page). Latest-quarter revenue grew 31.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), below the cluster pace, so the price only makes sense if demand accelerates well beyond what has been delivered. Delivered demand check: the Exploration & production group's median growth was 37.2% year over year — demand rising, but this company is growing more slowly than that pace. The company’s forward P/E is 33.6× against a peer median of 10.4×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Exploration & production group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 37.2% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. This company grew 31.2%, below the group median despite its much higher price. Latest-quarter sales growth was +31.2% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).

CompanyPrice (Oct 28, 2026)Forward P/ETrailing P/E
Texas Pacific Land (TPL)$336.3733.6×42.9×
EXE$92.7812.0×8.0×
EQT$55.5017.9×13.2×
DVN$51.749.4×11.1×
FANG$206.929.1×40.4×
OXY$63.4510.4×9.7×
Peer median10.4×

Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.

Sales, profit and cash

Sales and profit each quarter
SalesNet income (profit)
$0B$0B$0B$0BSep 2020Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 2025Jun 2026

This company does not report a gross-profit line in its SEC facts (normal for banks, payment networks and some health insurers), so profit is shown as net income instead — gross margin is marked UNVERIFIED-absent rather than estimated.

Cash left over each quarter (free cash flow)
PositiveNegative
$-0B$0B$0BSep 2020Sep 2021Sep 2022Sep 2023Sep 2024Sep 2025Jun 2026

Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.

QuarterSalesGross marginNet incomeEPS (GAAP, diluted)Free cash flow
Q/E Jun 2026
2026-06-30
$246M—$154M2.23—
Q/E Mar 2026
2026-03-31
$237M—$143M2.07—
Q/E Dec 2025
2025-12-31
$212M—$123M——
Q/E Sep 2025
2025-09-30
$203M—$121M5.27—
Q/E Jun 2025
2025-06-30
$188M—$116M5.05—
Q/E Mar 2025
2025-03-31
$196M—$121M5.24—
Q/E Dec 2024
2024-12-31
$186M—$118M——
Q/E Sep 2024
2024-09-30
$174M—$107M4.63—
Q/E Jun 2024
2024-06-30
$172M—$115M4.98—
Q/E Mar 2024
2024-03-31
$174M—$114M4.97—
Q/E Dec 2023
2023-12-31
$167M—$113M——
Q/E Sep 2023
2023-09-30
$158M—$106M13.74$102M

The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.

Earnings: getting better or worse?

Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.

Sep 2022
16.82
Dec 2022
—
Mar 2023
11.24
Jun 2023
13.05
Sep 2023
13.74
Dec 2023
—
Mar 2024
4.97
Jun 2024
4.98
Sep 2024
4.63
Dec 2024
—
Mar 2025
5.24
Jun 2025
5.05
Sep 2025
5.27
Dec 2025
—
Mar 2026
2.07
Jun 2026
2.23

Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

Key facts

ItemValue
Company (legal name in filings)Texas Pacific Land Corp
Chief executiveTyler Glover (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Pacific_Land_Corporation)
SectorEnergy — Oil & Gas Exploration & Production — owns land in West Texas and earns royalties and fees from oil, gas and water activity on that land
Share price (Oct 28, 2026)$336.37
Market value (market cap)$22.8B — share price times shares outstanding of 68,974,683 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest))
Sales, last twelve months$898M
Net income, last twelve months$541M
Free cash flow, last twelve months—
Latest reported quarterQ/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack)
Six-year price return vs S&P 500+454.08% vs +118.28%
Worst peak-to-trough fall-52.8% (2022-11-07 to 2023-06-23)

What we could not verify

  • Gross profit / gross margin: not tagged as a standalone line in this company's EDGAR company facts (common for banks, payment networks and some healthcare payers) — shown as UNVERIFIED-absent; the page charts revenue and net income instead.
  • TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
  • Free cash flow is absent for one or more quarters: either the filer does not separately tag PP&E purchases in its EDGAR cash-flow facts (common for banks), or — for a successor registrant's newest quarter — the cash-flow lines are year-to-date without the prior-quarter rung needed to difference them. Affected quarters are null in the data, never estimated.
  • Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
  • PEG ratio was shown as n/a on the statistics page, so no PEG evidence is available for this company; the label rests on the peer-median P/E, trailing P/E, price-to-sales and growth evidence.
  • Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.

The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.

Sources

  • SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001811074.json
  • SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares. https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001811074.json
  • Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates. https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/TPL/historical?assetclass=stocks
  • Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.

Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.

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