Tesla (TSLA)
Forward P/E is 187.31x against a peer median of 10.16x, a ratio of 18.44x — far above the roughly 2x bubble line — with trailing P/E 440.68x and PEG 5.64. Latest-quarter revenue fell 0.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so the price only makes sense if demand accelerates sharply from what has been delivered. Delivered demand check: the Autos, parts & leisure group's median growth was 5.7% year over year — demand steady, and Tesla is shrinking slightly while the group grows.
What would change this label: Move to OVERVALUED if the forward P/E compresses to about 20.3x or below (2.0x the peer median) at unchanged estimates while revenue growth stays near zero. Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 11.7x or below (1.15x the peer median), or if revenue growth rises above 15% year over year for two quarters with the PEG falling below about 2.
Tesla makes electric cars, batteries and solar products, and its car business is large and real. But the shares cost about 187 times next year's expected profit, while similar companies cost about 10 times, and its latest sales were slightly down on a year ago. At this price, buyers are paying for a future far bigger than anything the company has delivered so far.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Tesla returned +157.32% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Tesla: -73.6% (2021-11-04 to 2023-01-03). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 187.31x against a peer median of 10.16x, a ratio of 18.44x — far above the roughly 2x bubble line — with trailing P/E 440.68x and PEG 5.64. Latest-quarter revenue fell 0.2% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), so the price only makes sense if demand accelerates sharply from what has been delivered. Delivered demand check: the Autos, parts & leisure group's median growth was 5.7% year over year — demand steady, and Tesla is shrinking slightly while the group grows. The company’s forward P/E is 187.3× against a peer median of 10.2×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Autos, parts & leisure group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 5.7% year over year (SEC filings) — demand steady. Tesla's revenue fell 0.2%, so it is growing more slowly than the group median. Latest-quarter sales growth was -0.2% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | $401.10 | 187.3× | 440.7× |
| GM | $80.42 | 5.7× | 19.0× |
| GRMN | $275.00 | 25.8× | 26.4× |
| F | $11.77 | 6.7× | — |
| HAS | $120.33 | 18.1× | 17.9× |
| DECK | $79.79 | 10.2× | 10.5× |
| Peer median | 10.2× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | $28.0B | 19.6% | $787M | 0.22 | $1.5B |
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $28.2B | 16.8% | $1.1B | 0.32 | $-1.1B |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $22.4B | 21.1% | $477M | 0.13 | $1.4B |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $24.9B | 20.1% | $840M | — | $1.4B |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $28.1B | 18.0% | $1.4B | 0.39 | $4.0B |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $22.5B | 17.2% | $1.2B | 0.33 | $146M |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $19.3B | 16.3% | $409M | 0.12 | $664M |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $25.7B | 16.3% | $2.3B | — | $2.0B |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $25.2B | 19.8% | $2.2B | 0.62 | $2.7B |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $25.5B | 17.9% | $1.5B | 0.42 | $1.3B |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $21.3B | 17.4% | $1.1B | 0.34 | $-2.5B |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $25.2B | 17.6% | $7.9B | — | $2.1B |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 25-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Tesla, Inc. |
| Chief executive | Elon Musk (source: https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/elon-musk?redirect=no) |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary — Automobile Manufacturers — makes and sells electric cars, battery storage and solar energy products |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $401.10 |
| Market value (market cap) | $1.61T — share price times shares outstanding of 3,952,757,946 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $103.6B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $3.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $3.3B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Sep 2026 (of 25 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +157.32% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -73.6% (2021-11-04 to 2023-01-03) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Market capitalisation was recorded verbatim from the statistics page as $1.59 trillion.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001318605.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001318605.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/TSLA/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.