Twilio (TWLO)
Forward P/E 41.38x is 0.80x the peer median of 51.90x, a 20% discount, while latest-quarter revenue grew +22.0% year over year (PRIMARY/EDGAR) — growth is delivered, not collapsing, which meets the undervalued test. The caveats are real: PEG is 2.14, and forward P/E 41.38x sits above trailing P/E 35.38x, meaning forward earnings are expected to dip before they grow, and the peer median is lifted by very high-multiple security-software names. Delivered demand check: the cluster median grew +24.8% year over year — demand rising, in line with Twilio's own growth.
What would change this label: Moves down toward FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E re-rates above about 46.7x (0.90x the peer median) without earnings delivery, or if revenue growth slows below +10% year over year. The UNDERVALUED case firms up if forward earnings estimates start rising — forward P/E falling below trailing P/E — while revenue growth holds above +20%.
Twilio provides the messaging and calling tools apps use to reach customers, and sales grew about 22%. Its shares cost about 41 times next year's expected profit — expensive on its own, but about 20% cheaper than similar software companies at about 52 times, which is why it screens as undervalued relative to its group.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Twilio returned -6.84% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Twilio: -90.4% (2021-02-18 to 2022-11-04). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E 41.38x is 0.80x the peer median of 51.90x, a 20% discount, while latest-quarter revenue grew +22.0% year over year (PRIMARY/EDGAR) — growth is delivered, not collapsing, which meets the undervalued test. The caveats are real: PEG is 2.14, and forward P/E 41.38x sits above trailing P/E 35.38x, meaning forward earnings are expected to dip before they grow, and the peer median is lifted by very high-multiple security-software names. Delivered demand check: the cluster median grew +24.8% year over year — demand rising, in line with Twilio's own growth. The company’s forward P/E is 41.4× against a peer median of 51.9×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Systems software group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 24.8% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Latest-quarter sales growth was +22.0% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio (TWLO) | $255.95 | 41.4× | 35.4× |
| GEN | $24.08 | 8.0× | 14.1× |
| FTNT | $182.50 | 51.9× | 64.5× |
| NOW | $153.70 | 33.9× | 96.0× |
| CRWD | $269.00 | 190.4× | 7297.1× |
| PANW | $398.00 | 95.3× | 995.0× |
| Peer median | 51.9× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Jun 2026 2026-06-30 | $1.5B | 48.4% | $1.1B | 6.68 | — |
| Q/E Mar 2026 2026-03-31 | $1.4B | 48.6% | $90M | 0.57 | — |
| Q/E Dec 2025 2025-12-31 | $1.4B | 48.5% | $-46M | — | — |
| Q/E Sep 2025 2025-09-30 | $1.3B | 48.6% | $37M | 0.23 | — |
| Q/E Jun 2025 2025-06-30 | $1.2B | 49.1% | $22M | 0.14 | — |
| Q/E Mar 2025 2025-03-31 | $1.2B | 49.6% | $20M | 0.12 | — |
| Q/E Dec 2024 2024-12-31 | $1.2B | 50.2% | $-12M | — | — |
| Q/E Sep 2024 2024-09-30 | $1.1B | 51.0% | $-10M | -0.06 | — |
| Q/E Jun 2024 2024-06-30 | $1.1B | 51.4% | $-32M | -0.19 | — |
| Q/E Mar 2024 2024-03-31 | $1.0B | 52.0% | $-55M | -0.31 | — |
| Q/E Dec 2023 2023-12-31 | $1.1B | 49.4% | $-365M | — | — |
| Q/E Sep 2023 2023-09-30 | $1.0B | 50.0% | $-142M | -0.78 | — |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | TWILIO INC |
| Chief executive | Khozema Shipchandler (source: https://www.insidertrades.com/alerts/nyse-twlo-insider-buying-and-selling-2026-10-08/) |
| Sector | Technology — Systems Software — sells cloud communications APIs for messaging, voice and customer engagement |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $255.95 |
| Market value (market cap) | $39.1B — share price times shares outstanding of 153,575,220 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $5.6B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $1.1B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | — |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Jun 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | -6.84% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -90.4% (2021-02-18 to 2022-11-04) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Free cash flow is absent for one or more quarters: either the filer does not separately tag PP&E purchases in its EDGAR cash-flow facts (common for banks), or — for a successor registrant's newest quarter — the cash-flow lines are year-to-date without the prior-quarter rung needed to difference them. Affected quarters are null in the data, never estimated.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001447669.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001447669.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/TWLO/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.