Ulta Beauty (ULTA)
Forward P/E is 20.25x against a peer median of 15.88x, a ratio of 1.28x — above the fair range — with trailing P/E 22.50x and PEG 2.09. Latest-quarter revenue grew 8.9% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), only slightly above the group pace and with a PEG above 1.5, so the growth exception does not apply. Delivered demand check: the retail — broadline & specialty group's median growth was 8.1% year over year — demand rising, and this company grew only a little faster at 8.9%.
What would change this label: Move to FAIRLY PRICED if the forward P/E compresses to about 18.26x or below (1.15x the peer median) at unchanged estimates, or if revenue growth rises above 13% year over year for two quarters with the PEG at or below about 1.5. Move further from fair value if revenue growth falls below 5% year over year while the forward multiple stays above 20x.
Ulta Beauty sells make-up, skincare and salon services. Its shares trade at about 20 times expected earnings, above similar retail companies at about 16 times, while its sales grew 8.9%, only a little faster than the group. You pay a clear premium for almost no extra growth, so the shares look overvalued.
Both lines start at 100 on 2020-09-01. Over the full window Ulta Beauty returned +169.19% and the S&P 500 +118.28% (price returns; dividends not reinvested). Worst peak-to-trough fall for Ulta Beauty: -44.6% (2024-03-13 to 2025-03-13). Source: Nasdaq official daily history.
What the label rests on
Forward P/E is 20.25x against a peer median of 15.88x, a ratio of 1.28x — above the fair range — with trailing P/E 22.50x and PEG 2.09. Latest-quarter revenue grew 8.9% year over year (PRIMARY, EDGAR), only slightly above the group pace and with a PEG above 1.5, so the growth exception does not apply. Delivered demand check: the retail — broadline & specialty group's median growth was 8.1% year over year — demand rising, and this company grew only a little faster at 8.9%. The company’s forward P/E is 20.2× against a peer median of 15.9×. Its own history: UNVERIFIED — no sourced range available. Sector demand read: Delivered demand check: the Retail — broadline & specialty group's median latest-quarter revenue growth was 8.1% year over year (SEC filings) — demand rising. Ulta Beauty grew 8.9%, only slightly above the group median. Latest-quarter sales growth was +8.9% versus a year earlier (SEC filings).
| Company | Price (Oct 28, 2026) | Forward P/E | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulta Beauty (ULTA) | $617.67 | 20.2× | 22.5× |
| WSM | — | 25.1× | 25.5× |
| BBY | — | 13.8× | 16.2× |
| TSCO | — | 15.9× | 17.2× |
| GPC | — | 15.3× | 545.0× |
| CVNA | — | 29.2× | 32.8× |
| Peer median | 15.9× |
Multiples: stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026. Peer set chosen by sector; the median is the middle value of the set. The label and its numbers were recorded in the programme’s label registry on Oct 28, 2026 and will be scored at 6 and 12 months.
Sales, profit and cash
Gross margin = gross profit divided by sales, from SEC filings.
Free cash flow = cash from operations minus spending on plant and equipment, both from the company’s SEC cash-flow statement. Gaps are quarters where that spending line is not separately tagged in the filings — shown as gaps, never estimated.
| Quarter | Sales | Gross margin | Net income | EPS (GAAP, diluted) | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Aug 2026 2026-08-01 | $3.0B | 39.1% | $282M | 6.55 | $38M |
| Q/E May 2026 2026-05-02 | $3.2B | 40.1% | $340M | 7.74 | $204M |
| Q/E Jan 2026 2026-01-31 | $3.9B | 38.1% | $357M | — | $989M |
| Q/E Nov 2025 2025-11-01 | $2.9B | 40.4% | $231M | 5.14 | $-82M |
| Q/E Aug 2025 2025-08-02 | $2.8B | 39.1% | $261M | 5.78 | $20M |
| Q/E May 2025 2025-05-03 | $2.8B | 39.1% | $305M | 6.70 | $141M |
| Q/E Feb 2025 2025-02-01 | $3.5B | 38.2% | $393M | — | $963M |
| Q/E Nov 2024 2024-11-02 | $2.5B | 39.8% | $242M | 5.14 | $-171M |
| Q/E Aug 2024 2024-08-03 | $2.6B | 38.3% | $253M | 5.30 | $104M |
| Q/E May 2024 2024-05-04 | $2.7B | 39.2% | $313M | 6.47 | $68M |
| Q/E Feb 2024 2024-02-03 | $3.6B | 37.7% | $394M | — | $994M |
| Q/E Oct 2023 2023-10-28 | $2.5B | 39.9% | $249M | 5.07 | $-177M |
The last twelve reported quarters. Full 24-quarter history sits in the data pack behind this page. A dash means the figure is not tagged as a standalone quarter in the company’s SEC facts (the usual case is the fourth quarter, which many companies only report inside the full-year filing) — it is missing, not zero.
Earnings: getting better or worse?
Each box is one quarter’s earnings per share (EPS). Green means EPS was higher than the same quarter a year earlier; red means lower; a dash means the figure is not tagged in the filings.
Basis: GAAP diluted EPS from SEC company facts, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
Key facts
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Company (legal name in filings) | Ulta Beauty, Inc. |
| Chief executive | Kecia Steelman (source: https://www.fool.com/coverage/filings/2026/09/23/ulta-beauty-ceo-kecia-steelman-sells-2-000-shares-for-usd1-1-million/) |
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary — Other Specialty Retail — sells beauty products and salon services through Ulta Beauty stores |
| Share price (Oct 28, 2026) | $617.67 |
| Market value (market cap) | $26.8B — share price times shares outstanding of 42,757,471 (SEC filings; SEC EDGAR dei EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding (latest)) |
| Sales, last twelve months | $13.0B |
| Net income, last twelve months | $1.2B |
| Free cash flow, last twelve months | $1.1B |
| Latest reported quarter | Q/E Aug 2026 (of 24 quarters in the data pack) |
| Six-year price return vs S&P 500 | +169.19% vs +118.28% |
| Worst peak-to-trough fall | -44.6% (2024-03-13 to 2025-03-13) |
What we could not verify
- TTM GAAP diluted EPS could not be summed from company facts because at least one of the last four quarters (typically Q4) has no standalone tagged EPS; trailing P/E is therefore taken from the labelled secondary source in valuation_label.md.
- Own-history P/E range not yet compiled for this company in the Phase 1 batch run; the label rests on peer-median, growth and PEG evidence.
- Guidance record (each quarter scored against the guidance the company gave the quarter before) is not yet compiled for this company — it is a Phase 2 layer. The earnings strip below therefore uses reported EPS versus a year earlier, which is fully sourced from filings.
The IT factor — the most exciting thing the market is overlooking — is not assessed on an X-Ray page. It belongs to the Deep Dive (Phase 2), where it gets the evidence standard it needs. Leadership-era scoring (the six years split by chief executive) is likewise a Phase 2 layer; this page names the current chief executive only, from a sourced profile.
Sources
- SEC EDGAR submissions — Filing index; company legal name.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001403568.json - SEC EDGAR company facts — Quarterly financial spine: revenue, gross profit, net income, GAAP diluted EPS, operating cash flow, PP&E capex, buybacks, dividends, diluted shares.
https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001403568.json - Nasdaq official daily history — Daily closes for the company; SPY (assetclass=etf) saved as raw/nasdaq_spy_raw.json over identical dates.
https://api.nasdaq.com/api/quote/ULTA/historical?assetclass=stocks - Valuation multiples and peer figures — stockanalysis.com (SECONDARY, S&P Global data), fetched Oct 28, 2026; see valuation_label.md in the data pack.
Conventions: earliest-filed value per period, as first reported; cash-flow years-to-date differenced quarter by quarter; EPS never differenced; free cash flow = operating cash flow minus plant-and-equipment spending. This page is a dated snapshot — updates are new versions, never silent edits.